{
  "method": "Exploratory episode diagnostics. Break = first cross of prior 20-close boundary by .25 ATR, accepted on >=4 of current and next4 closes. Monthly candidates spaced42, structural events spaced21 within monitor episode. No new promotion tests.",
  "periods": {
    "2011_2025": {
      "structural_events": 654,
      "events_warned_before": 197,
      "event_recall": 0.3012232415902141,
      "median_lead_if_warned": 6.0,
      "only_same_day_or_after": 314,
      "warning_episodes": 941,
      "all_warning_future_break_rate": 0.21891604675876727,
      "prebreak_warning_episodes": 551,
      "prebreak_warning_precision": 0.3339382940108893,
      "prebreak_false_warning_fraction": 0.6660617059891107,
      "monthly_candidates": 1385,
      "quarter_confirmation_rate": 0.4750902527075812,
      "monthly_median_lead_if_confirmed": 19.0,
      "monthly_positive_return_rate": 0.5205776173285198
    },
    "2026_extension": {
      "structural_events": 65,
      "events_warned_before": 16,
      "event_recall": 0.24615384615384617,
      "median_lead_if_warned": 4.0,
      "only_same_day_or_after": 33,
      "warning_episodes": 78,
      "all_warning_future_break_rate": 0.19230769230769232,
      "prebreak_warning_episodes": 42,
      "prebreak_warning_precision": 0.30952380952380953,
      "prebreak_false_warning_fraction": 0.6904761904761905,
      "monthly_candidates": 108,
      "quarter_confirmation_rate": 0.48148148148148145,
      "monthly_median_lead_if_confirmed": 17.5,
      "monthly_positive_return_rate": 0.4166666666666667
    }
  }
}